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Alvarado vs Atenas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Alvarado

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

UPCOMING

Atenas

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-14.7%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.0%1-18.3%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.7%2-17.3%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.4%3-14.3%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-12.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 60.6% 1.65 -0.0%

Draw 23.8% 32.3% 3.10 -15.7%

Away win 15.6% 19.0% 5.25 -10.9%

Over 2.5 44.5% 40.0% 2.50 +11.3%

Over 3.5 25.5% 22.2% 4.50 +8.8%

BTTS 42.4% 40.0% 2.50 +6.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Away O1.5 11.1% 18.2% 5.50 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob42.4%

H 61% / xG 1.8-0.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.0%

#2 2–0 17.7%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 3–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alvarado1.8

Atenas0.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALVARADO · PPG 2.40

ATENAS · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alvarado (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -0.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.7%

Atenas (A) 15.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alvarado face Atenas in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alvarado a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Atenas 16%, so Alvarado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Alvarado and 0.4 for Atenas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alvarado are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Atenas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Alvarado vs Atenas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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