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Boca Unidos vs Gimnasia Concepción Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Boca Unidos

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Concepción

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-17.6%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.8%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.8%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 46.5% 2.15 +10.3%

Draw 26.1% 34.5% 2.90 -14.6%

Away win 22.6% 30.8% 3.25 -15.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 40.0% 2.50 +26.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 49.9% 45.5% 2.20 +9.8%

Home O1.5 45.8% 38.2% 2.62 +20.0%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boca Unidos1.6

Gimnasia Concepción0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCA UNIDOS · PPG 1.90

GIMNASIA CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boca Unidos (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +10.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.6%

Gimnasia Concepción (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boca Unidos face Gimnasia Concepción in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boca Unidos a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Gimnasia Concepción 23%, so Boca Unidos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Boca Unidos and 0.8 for Gimnasia Concepción (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boca Unidos are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.82 for Gimnasia Concepción. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.0%.

Boca Unidos vs Gimnasia Concepción Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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