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Fundacion Amigos vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:30

Fundacion Amigos

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

UPCOMING

Germinal de Rawson

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDD

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-16.7%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.1%1-19.3%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-16.5%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.5%3-13.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Draw 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

Away win 15.3% 15.4% 6.50 -0.3%

Over 2.5 34.6% 36.4% 2.75 -4.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 18.2% 5.50 +0.1%

BTTS 41.7% 36.4% 2.75 +14.7%

Home O1.5 39.8% 47.6% 2.10 -16.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 16.7% 6.00 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.7%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.1%

#2 0–0 16.5%

#3 2–0 16.1%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fundacion Amigos1.4

Germinal de Rawson0.4

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FUNDACION AMIGOS · PPG 1.82

GERMINAL DE RAWSON · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fundacion Amigos (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -8.8%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.9%

Germinal de Rawson (A) 15.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fundacion Amigos face Germinal de Rawson in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fundacion Amigos a 56% chance, the draw 28% and Germinal de Rawson 15%, so Fundacion Amigos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Fundacion Amigos and 0.4 for Germinal de Rawson (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fundacion Amigos are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.40 for Germinal de Rawson. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +14.7%.

Fundacion Amigos vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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