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Deportivo Rincon vs Costa Brava Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Rincon

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

UPCOMING

Costa Brava

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-110.4%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.7%1-110.9%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.9%2-15.7%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.2%3-12.0%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 54.6% 1.83 -16.0%

Draw 31.8% 34.5% 2.90 -7.8%

Away win 22.3% 23.1% 4.33 -2.1%

Over 2.5 34.6% 36.4% 2.75 -4.9%

Over 3.5 13.6% 18.2% 5.50 -15.1%

BTTS 41.7% 38.2% 2.62 +9.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 41.7% 2.40 -26.1%

Away O1.5 14.0% 22.2% 4.50 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.7%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.7%

#2 0–0 21.6%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 1–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Rincon1.1

Costa Brava0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RINCON · PPG 1.82

COSTA BRAVA · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Rincon (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -16.0%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.8%

Costa Brava (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Rincon face Costa Brava in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Rincon a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Costa Brava 22%, so Deportivo Rincon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Rincon and 0.5 for Costa Brava (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Rincon are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.91 for Costa Brava. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Deportivo Rincon vs Costa Brava Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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