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ADR Jicaral vs Quepos Cambute Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

ADR Jicaral

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

UPCOMING

Quepos Cambute

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.4%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.2%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.7%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 52.6% 1.90 -1.2%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 35.6% 2.81 -10.9%

BTTS 53.8% 61.0% 1.64 -11.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 53.5% 1.87 -6.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 36.2% 2.76 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADR Jicaral1.7

Quepos Cambute0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ADR JICARAL · PPG 2.00

QUEPOS CAMBUTE · PPG 1.03

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ADR Jicaral (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -1.2%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Quepos Cambute (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADR Jicaral face Quepos Cambute in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADR Jicaral a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Quepos Cambute 24%, so ADR Jicaral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for ADR Jicaral and 0.9 for Quepos Cambute (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADR Jicaral are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.03 for Quepos Cambute.

ADR Jicaral vs Quepos Cambute Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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