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AD Sarchí vs Aserri FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

AD Sarchí

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDL ·

UPCOMING

Aserri FC

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.3%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.4%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.2%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.5%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 57.1% 1.75 -21.1%

Draw 25.5% 27.8% 3.60 -4.9%

Away win 29.4% 27.8% 3.60 +3.5%

Over 2.5 50.8% 61.7% 1.62 -17.7%

Over 3.5 30.8% 49.5% 2.02 -37.8%

BTTS 52.9% 70.9% 1.41 -25.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 66.7% 1.50 -40.2%

Away O1.5 31.5% 43.1% 2.32 -26.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AD Sarchí1.5

Aserri FC1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AD SARCHÍ · PPG 1.61

ASERRI FC · PPG 1.37

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AD Sarchí (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.1%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.9%

Aserri FC (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AD Sarchí face Aserri FC in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AD Sarchí a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Aserri FC 29%, so AD Sarchí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AD Sarchí and 1.0 for Aserri FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AD Sarchí are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.37 for Aserri FC.

AD Sarchí vs Aserri FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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