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Guadalupe FC vs CS Uruguay Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 02:00

Guadalupe FC

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

UPCOMING

CS Uruguay

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.1%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.9%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.8%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 65.4% 1.53 -24.6%

Draw 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

Away win 27.0% 21.1% 4.75 +17.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 3.5 36.3% — — —

BTTS 55.9% — — —

Home O1.5 49.9% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalupe FC1.8

CS Uruguay1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALUPE FC · PPG 1.07

CS URUGUAY · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guadalupe FC (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -24.6%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.5%

CS Uruguay (A) 27.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalupe FC face CS Uruguay in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalupe FC a 49% chance, the draw 24% and CS Uruguay 27%, so Guadalupe FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Guadalupe FC and 1.1 for CS Uruguay (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalupe FC are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.71 for CS Uruguay.

Guadalupe FC vs CS Uruguay Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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