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Cariari Pococi vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 1 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 19:00

Cariari Pococi

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWD ·

UPCOMING

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.9%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.0%1-111.5%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.1%3-15.4%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 52.4% 1.91 -9.1%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.1% 1.75 -5.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 35.6% 2.81 -10.9%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 49.5% 52.6% 1.90 -5.9%

Away O1.5 32.5% 38.3% 2.61 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cariari Pococi1.7

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CARIARI POCOCI · PPG 1.29

PITBULLS SANTA BARBARA FC · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cariari Pococi (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -9.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cariari Pococi face Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cariari Pococi a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 28%, so Cariari Pococi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cariari Pococi and 1.1 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cariari Pococi are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.95 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.

Cariari Pococi vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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