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Aserri FC vs Cariari Pococi Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Aserri FC

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

UPCOMING

Cariari Pococi

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-19.0%0-25.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.9%1-112.6%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.8%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.5%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 42.0% 2.38 +6.4%

Draw 25.5% 30.3% 3.30 -9.5%

Away win 29.8% 39.2% 2.55 -14.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.8% 3.05 -3.6%

BTTS 54.8% 60.2% 1.66 -9.0%

Home O1.5 39.8% 43.7% 2.29 -8.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 42.0% 2.38 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.8%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aserri FC1.4

Cariari Pococi1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ASERRI FC · PPG 1.32

CARIARI POCOCI · PPG 1.61

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aserri FC (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +6.4%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.5%

Cariari Pococi (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aserri FC face Cariari Pococi in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aserri FC a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Cariari Pococi 30%, so Aserri FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aserri FC and 1.2 for Cariari Pococi (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aserri FC are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.61 for Cariari Pococi. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.2%.

Aserri FC vs Cariari Pococi Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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