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Deportes Rengo vs Santiago Morning Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Deportes Rengo

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

UPCOMING

Santiago Morning

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.1%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.2%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 36.4% 2.75 +37.8%

Draw 25.0% 30.8% 3.25 -11.3%

Away win 24.9% 44.4% 2.25 -26.4%

Over 2.5 50.9% 48.8% 2.05 +4.3%

Over 3.5 31.1% 28.6% 3.50 +8.8%

BTTS 52.9% 56.2% 1.78 -5.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 35.2% 2.84 +13.3%

Away O1.5 26.1% 43.7% 2.29 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Rengo1.5

Santiago Morning1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES RENGO · PPG 1.57

SANTIAGO MORNING · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Rengo (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +37.8%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.3%

Santiago Morning (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Rengo face Santiago Morning in Chile - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Rengo a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Santiago Morning 25%, so Deportes Rengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportes Rengo and 1.0 for Santiago Morning (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Rengo are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Santiago Morning. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +27.8%.

Deportes Rengo vs Santiago Morning Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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