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Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Municipal Salamanca

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

UPCOMING

Provincial Osorno

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-034.4%0-117.7%0-24.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-19.8%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.2%2-12.7%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.0%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 45.5% 2.20 -30.3%

Draw 38.0% 32.3% 3.10 +17.8%

Away win 30.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.1%

Over 2.5 30.1% 42.6% 2.35 -29.3%

Over 3.5 11.2% 20.8% 4.80 -27.7%

BTTS 32.6% 49.0% 2.04 -33.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.8% 2.72 -16.2%

Away O1.5 14.0% 32.9% 3.04 -34.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob32.6%

D 38% / xG 0.6-0.5 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 34.4%

#2 1–0 19.0%

#3 0–1 17.7%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Municipal Salamanca0.6

Provincial Osorno0.5

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MUNICIPAL SALAMANCA · PPG 1.43

PROVINCIAL OSORNO · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

Chance this pick lands

38%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 1.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Municipal Salamanca (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -30.3%

Draw 38.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +17.8%

Provincial Osorno (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Municipal Salamanca face Provincial Osorno in Chile - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Municipal Salamanca a 32% chance, the draw 38% and Provincial Osorno 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Municipal Salamanca and 0.5 for Provincial Osorno (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Municipal Salamanca are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.50 for Provincial Osorno.

Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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