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Bartolomé Mitre vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:30

Bartolomé Mitre

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.3%0-112.8%0-23.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.3%1-110.9%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.5%2-14.6%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.7%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 11.1% 9.00 +250.1%

Draw 32.0% 28.6% 3.50 +12.0%

Away win 29.2% 71.4% 1.40 -35.5%

Over 2.5 34.6% 38.2% 2.62 -9.3%

Over 3.5 13.6% 20.0% 5.00 -19.2%

BTTS 41.7% 30.8% 3.25 +35.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 11.2% 8.90 +174.1%

Away O1.5 14.0% 49.8% 2.01 -43.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.7%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.3%

#2 1–0 22.3%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bartolomé Mitre0.8

Gimnasia Chivilcoy0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BARTOLOMÉ MITRE · PPG 1.90

GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY · PPG 0.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

42%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 1.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bartolomé Mitre (H) 38.9%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +250.1%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +12.0%

Gimnasia Chivilcoy (A) 29.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bartolomé Mitre face Gimnasia Chivilcoy in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bartolomé Mitre a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Gimnasia Chivilcoy 29%, so Bartolomé Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.5 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bartolomé Mitre are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.82 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +174.1%.

Bartolomé Mitre vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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