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Puerto Nuevo vs Lugano Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Puerto Nuevo

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

UPCOMING

Lugano

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-113.3%0-27.3%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.2%2-16.8%2-23.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.1%3-12.3%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 35.7% 2.80 +0.8%

Draw 28.0% 37.0% 2.70 -14.6%

Away win 36.0% 39.2% 2.55 -8.2%

Over 2.5 44.5% 28.6% 3.50 +55.8%

Over 3.5 25.5% 13.3% 7.50 +54.8%

BTTS 49.9% 36.4% 2.75 +37.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 23.1% 4.33 +33.4%

Away O1.5 33.1% 25.0% 4.00 +32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 60%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puerto Nuevo1.0

Lugano1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PUERTO NUEVO · PPG 1.08

LUGANO · PPG 1.46

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puerto Nuevo (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +0.8%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.6%

Lugano (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puerto Nuevo face Lugano in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puerto Nuevo a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Lugano 36%, so Puerto Nuevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Puerto Nuevo and 1.1 for Lugano (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puerto Nuevo are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.46 for Lugano. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +66.7%.

Puerto Nuevo vs Lugano Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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