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Victoriano Arenas vs Argentino Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Victoriano Arenas

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

UPCOMING

Argentino Rosario

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-19.5%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.6%1-111.2%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-16.6%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.0%3-12.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 46.5% 2.15 +4.7%

Draw 30.5% 34.0% 2.94 -10.3%

Away win 20.7% 30.8% 3.25 -19.6%

Over 2.5 34.6% 41.2% 2.43 -15.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 20.2% 4.95 -5.9%

BTTS 42.4% 48.1% 2.08 -11.8%

Home O1.5 32.9% 38.3% 2.61 -14.1%

Away O1.5 14.0% 27.3% 3.66 -29.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.4%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.6%

#2 0–0 18.3%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Victoriano Arenas1.2

Argentino Rosario0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VICTORIANO ARENAS · PPG 1.62

ARGENTINO ROSARIO · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Victoriano Arenas (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +4.7%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -10.3%

Argentino Rosario (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Victoriano Arenas face Argentino Rosario in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Victoriano Arenas a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Argentino Rosario 21%, so Victoriano Arenas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Victoriano Arenas and 0.5 for Argentino Rosario (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Victoriano Arenas are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.33 for Argentino Rosario. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.2%.

Victoriano Arenas vs Argentino Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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