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Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Paraguayo

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

UPCOMING

Leandro N. Alem

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-111.2%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.4%1-113.3%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-17.9%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 38.2% 2.62 +14.0%

Draw 27.5% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Away win 29.0% 38.2% 2.62 -14.4%

Over 2.5 44.5% 33.3% 3.00 +33.5%

Over 3.5 25.6% 16.7% 6.00 +32.2%

BTTS 49.9% 40.0% 2.50 +24.8%

Home O1.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

Away O1.5 32.6% 28.6% 3.50 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 60%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Paraguayo1.2

Leandro N. Alem1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO · PPG 0.92

LEANDRO N. ALEM · PPG 0.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Paraguayo (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +14.0%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.8%

Leandro N. Alem (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Paraguayo face Leandro N. Alem in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Paraguayo a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Leandro N. Alem 29%, so Deportivo Paraguayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Deportivo Paraguayo and 1.1 for Leandro N. Alem (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Paraguayo are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 0.75 for Leandro N. Alem. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +38.6%.

Deportivo Paraguayo vs Leandro N. Alem Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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