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Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Berazategui

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLD

UPCOMING

Estrella Del Sur

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-110.5%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.7%1-113.1%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.2%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.4%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 38.5% 2.60 +14.4%

Draw 27.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.5%

Away win 28.7% 39.2% 2.55 -16.1%

Over 2.5 44.5% 40.0% 2.50 +11.3%

Over 3.5 25.5% 22.2% 4.50 +8.8%

BTTS 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Home O1.5 35.9% 30.8% 3.25 +16.7%

Away O1.5 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 60%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berazategui1.2

Estrella Del Sur0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BERAZATEGUI · PPG 1.33

ESTRELLA DEL SUR · PPG 1.23

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Berazategui (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +14.4%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.5%

Estrella Del Sur (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berazategui face Estrella Del Sur in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berazategui a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Estrella Del Sur 29%, so Berazategui are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Berazategui and 0.9 for Estrella Del Sur (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berazategui are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.23 for Estrella Del Sur. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.2%.

Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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