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Oţelul vs Rapid Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:30

Oţelul

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

UPCOMING

Rapid

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-19.6%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.8%1-112.8%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.5%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.8%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 34.5% 2.90 +31.4%

Draw 27.5% 34.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Away win 27.1% 40.8% 2.45 -20.2%

Over 2.5 44.5% 48.1% 2.08 -7.4%

Over 3.5 25.5% 26.7% 3.75 -2.6%

BTTS 49.9% 57.1% 1.75 -12.7%

Home O1.5 38.9% 36.4% 2.75 +7.0%

Away O1.5 24.9% 42.0% 2.38 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oţelul1.3

Rapid0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OŢELUL · PPG 1.81

RAPID · PPG 1.54

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oţelul (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +31.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

Rapid (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oţelul face Rapid in Romania - Liga I on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oţelul a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Rapid 27%, so Oţelul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Oţelul and 0.9 for Rapid (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oţelul are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.54 for Rapid. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +22.3%.

Oţelul vs Rapid Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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