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FC Botosani vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

FC Botosani

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

UPCOMING

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-112.2%0-24.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.8%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.5%2-16.7%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 45.0% 2.22 -7.6%

Draw 31.3% 31.3% 3.20 +0.2%

Away win 27.0% 32.8% 3.05 -10.6%

Over 2.5 34.6% 50.0% 2.00 -30.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 28.6% 3.50 -21.8%

BTTS 42.4% 57.8% 1.73 -26.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 44.4% 2.25 -30.7%

Away O1.5 18.8% 35.7% 2.80 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Botosani1.0

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BOTOSANI · PPG 1.71

SEPSI OSK SFANTU GHEORGHE · PPG 1.39

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Botosani (H) 41.6%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -7.6%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.2%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Botosani face Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe in Romania - Liga I on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Botosani a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 27%, so FC Botosani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FC Botosani and 0.7 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Botosani are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.39 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.

FC Botosani vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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