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CFR 1907 Cluj vs Farul Constanta Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:30

CFR 1907 Cluj

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

UPCOMING

Farul Constanta

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.5%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.4%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 53.2% 1.88 -4.1%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 25.2% 27.4% 3.65 -4.8%

Over 2.5 58.1% 55.6% 1.80 +4.6%

Over 3.5 36.0% 33.9% 2.95 +6.2%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 54.1% 1.85 +3.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 34.7% 2.88 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CFR 1907 Cluj1.9

Farul Constanta1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CFR 1907 CLUJ · PPG 2.14

FARUL CONSTANTA · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CFR 1907 Cluj (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -4.1%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

Farul Constanta (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

CFR 1907 Cluj face Farul Constanta in Romania - Liga I on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CFR 1907 Cluj a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Farul Constanta 25%, so CFR 1907 Cluj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for CFR 1907 Cluj and 1.1 for Farul Constanta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CFR 1907 Cluj are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.90 for Farul Constanta. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +6.5%.

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Farul Constanta Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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