Today / Romania - Liga I / Uta Arad vs Csikszereda
Uta Arad vs Csikszereda Prediction— Romania - Liga I
Uta Arad
PPG 1.41 · HOME
Csikszereda
PPG 0.56 · AWAY
// Model verdict
Home
Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-07.9% 0-16.2% 0-22.4% 0-30.6% 0-4+0.1% 1 1-013.9% 1-110.8% 1-24.2% 1-31.1% 1-4+0.3% 2 2-012.2% 2-19.5% 2-23.7% 2-31.0% 2-4+0.2% 3 3-07.2% 3-15.6% 3-22.2% 3-30.6% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-04.7% 4+-13.7% 4+-21.4% 4+-30.4% 4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 54.3% 62.1% 1.61 -12.6%
Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%
Away win 21.6% 19.6% 5.10 +6.1%
Over 2.5 50.6% 52.4% 1.91 -3.4%
Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%
BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%
Home O1.5 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%
Away O1.5 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%
League track record ↗
Based on 25 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5 64%
BTTS 52%
Score Hit 52%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
3 – 0 28% CONFIDENCE
xG (home) 1.8 xG (away) 0.8 BTTS prob 49.9%
H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–1 10.8%
#2 1–0 13.9%
#3 2–0 12.2%
#4 2–1 9.5%
#5 0–0 7.9%
Form & verdict PPG
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage MODERATE_HOME xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 6 matches · 2026 Uta Arad ▾ lower is better Csikszereda
Attack
5.6 Shots outside box
3.7 24.0% Shooting accuracy
43.8% 24.0% Goals per shot on target
19.0% 1.27 xG for 2·1 of 6
0.26 Defence
3.9 Shots on target faced▾
7.7 1.43 Goals conceded▾
2.17 0.59 xG against▾ 2·1 of 6
1.76 Control
77.3% Pass accuracy
78.4% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Uta Arad face Csikszereda in Romania - Liga I on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uta Arad a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Csikszereda 22%, so Uta Arad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Uta Arad and 0.8 for Csikszereda (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uta Arad are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 0.56 for Csikszereda.
Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30
