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FC Bacau vs Slatina Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:30

FC Bacau

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Slatina

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.5%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.3%1-111.7%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.2%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.8%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 39.2% 2.55 +8.1%

Draw 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

Away win 34.3% 39.2% 2.55 -12.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 48.8% 2.05 +22.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 27.0% 3.70 +34.7%

BTTS 59.0% 55.6% 1.80 +6.2%

Home O1.5 46.4% 39.2% 2.55 +18.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 39.2% 2.55 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Bacau1.6

Slatina1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BACAU · PPG 2.06

SLATINA · PPG 1.96

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Bacau (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +8.1%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.3%

Slatina (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Bacau face Slatina in Romania - Liga II on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Bacau a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Slatina 34%, so FC Bacau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Bacau and 1.3 for Slatina (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Bacau are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.96 for Slatina. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.7%. This match finished 0-0.

FC Bacau vs Slatina Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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