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ASA Targu Mures vs Metaloglobus Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:00

ASA Targu Mures

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

UPCOMING

Metaloglobus

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.6%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-111.9%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Draw 24.5% 32.5% 3.08 -14.7%

Away win 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 45.7% 2.19 +17.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 25.5% 3.92 +24.3%

BTTS 54.8% 53.2% 1.88 +3.0%

Home O1.5 47.1% 41.2% 2.43 +14.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 32.9% 3.04 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.8%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ASA Targu Mures1.6

Metaloglobus1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ASA TARGU MURES · PPG 1.73

METALOGLOBUS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ASA Targu Mures (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +1.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.08 · IMPLIED 32.5% EV -14.7%

Metaloglobus (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

ASA Targu Mures face Metaloglobus in Romania - Liga II on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ASA Targu Mures a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Metaloglobus 30%, so ASA Targu Mures are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for ASA Targu Mures and 1.1 for Metaloglobus (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ASA Targu Mures are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.50 for Metaloglobus. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.3%.

ASA Targu Mures vs Metaloglobus Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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