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Slatina vs Chindia Targoviste Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 14:30

Slatina

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

UPCOMING

Chindia Targoviste

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.8%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.8%1-111.5%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 43.5% 2.30 +16.8%

Draw 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Away win 24.9% 33.3% 3.00 -15.2%

Over 2.5 53.0% 46.5% 2.15 +14.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.6% 3.90 +23.2%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 41.7% 2.40 +19.8%

Away O1.5 27.1% 34.5% 2.90 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slatina1.7

Chindia Targoviste1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLATINA · PPG 1.93

CHINDIA TARGOVISTE · PPG 1.51

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Slatina (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +16.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Chindia Targoviste (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slatina face Chindia Targoviste in Romania - Liga II on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slatina a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Chindia Targoviste 25%, so Slatina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Slatina and 1.0 for Chindia Targoviste (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slatina are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.51 for Chindia Targoviste. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +38.2%.

Slatina vs Chindia Targoviste Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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