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Concordia vs CS Afumati Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:00

Concordia

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

UPCOMING

CS Afumati

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.9% — a clear edge.

+17.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.9%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.5%1-19.8%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.9%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.6%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.3%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 61.3% 1.63 -13.3%

Draw 22.5% 28.7% 3.48 -13.0%

Away win 24.3% 21.1% 4.75 +9.3%

Over 2.5 62.4% 52.9% 1.89 +17.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 31.3% 3.20 +28.6%

BTTS 61.5% 54.9% 1.82 +11.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 55.2% 1.81 +1.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 26.7% 3.75 +24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–2 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concordia2.0

CS Afumati1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCORDIA · PPG 1.70

CS AFUMATI · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Concordia (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -13.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.48 · IMPLIED 28.7% EV -13.0%

CS Afumati (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concordia face CS Afumati in Romania - Liga II on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concordia a 53% chance, the draw 23% and CS Afumati 24%, so Concordia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Concordia and 1.2 for CS Afumati (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concordia are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.23 for CS Afumati. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.6%.

Concordia vs CS Afumati Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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