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FC Bacau vs Dumbrăviţa Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 08:00

FC Bacau

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

UPCOMING

Dumbrăviţa

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.9%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-110.7%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-15.9%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 62.1% 1.61 -12.3%

Draw 23.9% 28.4% 3.52 -9.5%

Away win 21.5% 20.8% 4.80 +1.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.4% 1.91 +2.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 55.2% 1.81 -9.7%

Away O1.5 23.8% 25.4% 3.94 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Bacau1.8

Dumbrăviţa0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BACAU · PPG 1.93

DUMBRĂVIŢA · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Bacau (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -12.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.52 · IMPLIED 28.4% EV -9.5%

Dumbrăviţa (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Bacau face Dumbrăviţa in Romania - Liga II on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Bacau a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Dumbrăviţa 22%, so FC Bacau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Bacau and 0.8 for Dumbrăviţa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Bacau are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.92 for Dumbrăviţa. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.8%.

FC Bacau vs Dumbrăviţa Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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