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ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

ML Vitebsk

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

UPCOMING

Dinamo Minsk

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.8%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.9%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 44.6% 2.24 -8.8%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 32.1% 31.3% 3.20 +2.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 51.8% 1.93 -2.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.1% 3.12 -6.3%

BTTS 52.9% 58.5% 1.71 -9.5%

Home O1.5 38.4% 46.9% 2.13 -18.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.3% 2.68 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ML Vitebsk1.3

Dinamo Minsk1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ML VITEBSK · PPG 1.56

DINAMO MINSK · PPG 2.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ML Vitebsk (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -8.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Dinamo Minsk (A) 32.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

ML Vitebsk face Dinamo Minsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ML Vitebsk a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Dinamo Minsk 32%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for ML Vitebsk and 1.2 for Dinamo Minsk (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ML Vitebsk are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 2.44 for Dinamo Minsk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%.

ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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