Today / Portugal - Liga 3 / São João Ver vs AD Marco 09

São João Ver vs AD Marco 09 Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

São João Ver

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

UPCOMING

AD Marco 09

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-112.0%0-26.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.4%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.0%2-17.5%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.8%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 38.2% 2.62 -5.9%

Draw 27.9% 37.0% 2.70 -14.8%

Away win 36.3% 36.4% 2.75 -0.2%

Over 2.5 47.5% 42.6% 2.35 +11.6%

Over 3.5 26.3% 22.0% 4.55 +11.8%

BTTS 50.3% 51.3% 1.95 -1.9%

Home O1.5 31.2% 36.2% 2.76 -13.9%

Away O1.5 32.8% 35.1% 2.85 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.3%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São João Ver1.1

AD Marco 091.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO JOÃO VER · PPG 1.21

AD MARCO 09 · PPG 0.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

51%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

São João Ver (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -5.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.8%

AD Marco 09 (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

São João Ver face AD Marco 09 in Portugal - Liga 3 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São João Ver a 36% chance, the draw 28% and AD Marco 09 36%, so AD Marco 09 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for São João Ver and 1.1 for AD Marco 09 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São João Ver are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.82 for AD Marco 09. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.8%.

São João Ver vs AD Marco 09 Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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