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Louletano vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Louletano

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLW ··

UPCOMING

Lusitano Évora 1911

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.4%0-25.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.2%1-113.1%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-18.3%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 34.5% 2.90 +26.4%

Draw 27.5% 34.7% 2.88 -12.5%

Away win 28.9% 43.5% 2.30 -20.1%

Over 2.5 49.4% 46.5% 2.15 +6.2%

Over 3.5 27.5% 26.9% 3.72 +1.4%

BTTS 51.8% 54.1% 1.85 -4.2%

Home O1.5 38.4% 34.6% 2.89 +11.0%

Away O1.5 29.6% 40.8% 2.45 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.8%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Louletano1.3

Lusitano Évora 19111.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LOULETANO · PPG 1.25

LUSITANO ÉVORA 1911 · PPG 1.07

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Louletano (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +26.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.5%

Lusitano Évora 1911 (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Louletano face Lusitano Évora 1911 in Portugal - Liga 3 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Louletano a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Lusitano Évora 1911 29%, so Louletano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Louletano and 1.0 for Lusitano Évora 1911 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Louletano are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.07 for Lusitano Évora 1911. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Louletano vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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