Today / Portugal - Liga 3 / Leça vs Fafe

Leça vs Fafe Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Leça

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLW ··

UPCOMING

Fafe

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-111.3%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.1%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-17.8%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 34.5% 2.90 +5.3%

Draw 27.9% 34.5% 2.90 -11.5%

Away win 35.8% 43.5% 2.30 -17.7%

Over 2.5 48.2% 45.5% 2.20 +6.0%

Over 3.5 26.7% 25.0% 4.00 +4.1%

BTTS 51.3% 54.1% 1.85 -5.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 35.6% 2.81 -8.4%

Away O1.5 33.1% 41.2% 2.43 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.3%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–0 12.1%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leça1.2

Fafe1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEÇA · PPG 1.42

FAFE · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leça (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +5.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.5%

Fafe (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leça face Fafe in Portugal - Liga 3 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leça a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Fafe 36%, so Leça are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leça and 1.1 for Fafe (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leça are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.40 for Fafe. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Leça vs Fafe Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Liga 3 Predictions