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Varzim vs Paredes Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:30

Varzim

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

UPCOMING

Paredes

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.2%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.9%1-112.8%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-18.8%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.1%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 41.7% 2.40 +11.1%

Draw 26.2% 35.7% 2.80 -16.0%

Away win 27.5% 34.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Over 2.5 50.6% 42.6% 2.35 +18.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 24.1% 4.15 +11.5%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 39.6% 38.8% 2.58 +2.2%

Away O1.5 29.2% 34.6% 2.89 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varzim1.4

Paredes1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VARZIM · PPG 1.82

PAREDES · PPG 1.52

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Varzim (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.0%

Paredes (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varzim face Paredes in Portugal - Liga 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varzim a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Paredes 28%, so Varzim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Varzim and 1.0 for Paredes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varzim are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.52 for Paredes. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Varzim vs Paredes Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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