Today / Portugal - Liga 3 / Vitória de Sernache vs CF Os Belenenses

Vitória de Sernache vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:30

Vitória de Sernache

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LDL ··

UPCOMING

CF Os Belenenses

PPG 2.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

Away 61% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-111.4%0-29.3%0-35.0%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.8%2-16.1%2-24.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% 20.0% 5.00 +7.8%

Draw 22.8% 28.6% 3.50 -12.1%

Away win 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 31.8% 3.14 -0.5%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 30.8% 26.6% 3.76 +15.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.9%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitória de Sernache1.0

CF Os Belenenses1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VITÓRIA DE SERNACHE · PPG 1.42

CF OS BELENENSES · PPG 2.05

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

xG gap -0.59 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vitória de Sernache (H) 22.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +7.8%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.1%

CF Os Belenenses (A) 54.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitória de Sernache face CF Os Belenenses in Portugal - Liga 3 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitória de Sernache a 23% chance, the draw 23% and CF Os Belenenses 55%, so CF Os Belenenses are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Vitória de Sernache and 1.6 for CF Os Belenenses (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitória de Sernache are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 2.05 for CF Os Belenenses. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.3%.

Vitória de Sernache vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Liga 3 Predictions