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Vianense vs Pacos Ferreira Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Vianense

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

UPCOMING

Pacos Ferreira

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home 43% chance

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+28.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.3%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.3%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.1%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 40.0% 2.50 +28.2%

Draw 26.1% 34.5% 2.90 -14.6%

Away win 22.5% 37.0% 2.70 -23.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.6% 3.90 +7.2%

BTTS 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 37.9% 2.64 +5.3%

Away O1.5 24.9% 36.2% 2.76 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vianense1.5

Pacos Ferreira0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VIANENSE · PPG 1.75

PACOS FERREIRA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

43%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vianense (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +28.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.6%

Pacos Ferreira (A) 22.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vianense face Pacos Ferreira in Portugal - Liga 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vianense a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Pacos Ferreira 23%, so Vianense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vianense and 0.9 for Pacos Ferreira (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vianense are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Pacos Ferreira. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Vianense vs Pacos Ferreira Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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