Today / Portugal - Liga 3 / Mafra vs SC Covilha

Mafra vs SC Covilha Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Mafra

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

UPCOMING

SC Covilha

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDL ··

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.3%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.7%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-15.1%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 22.6% 22.7% 4.40 -0.3%

Over 2.5 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 51.8% 50.0% 2.00 +3.6%

Home O1.5 48.0% 49.5% 2.02 -3.0%

Away O1.5 24.3% 23.0% 4.35 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.8%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mafra1.6

SC Covilha0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAFRA · PPG 1.99

SC COVILHA · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mafra (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -7.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

SC Covilha (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mafra face SC Covilha in Portugal - Liga 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mafra a 53% chance, the draw 24% and SC Covilha 23%, so Mafra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mafra and 0.8 for SC Covilha (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mafra are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.22 for SC Covilha. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Mafra vs SC Covilha Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Liga 3 Predictions