Today / Portugal - Liga 3 / Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Mafra

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Mafra Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Lusitano Évora 1911

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

LDW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Mafra

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDL ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-112.9%0-27.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.7%2-16.8%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.0%3-12.4%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% 38.2% 2.62 -21.1%

Draw 27.9% 36.4% 2.75 -14.0%

Away win 42.0% 38.2% 2.62 +10.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 43.5% 2.30 -1.8%

Over 3.5 23.2% 21.1% 4.75 +6.1%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.6% 2.98 -8.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 33.6% 2.98 +9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.6%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lusitano Évora 19111.0

Mafra1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSITANO ÉVORA 1911 · PPG 1.48

MAFRA · PPG 1.28

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lusitano Évora 1911 (H) 30.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.0%

Mafra (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lusitano Évora 1911 face Mafra in Portugal - Liga 3 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lusitano Évora 1911 a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Mafra 42%, so Mafra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lusitano Évora 1911 and 1.2 for Mafra (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lusitano Évora 1911 are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.28 for Mafra. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Mafra Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Liga 3 Predictions