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Guimaraes B vs Trofense Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Guimaraes B

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

UPCOMING

Trofense

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-110.1%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-112.9%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.2%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.5%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 57.1% 1.75 -18.1%

Draw 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.0%

Away win 25.2% 22.7% 4.40 +6.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 21.2% 26.0% 3.84 -11.2%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 49.0% 2.04 -21.7%

Away O1.5 23.8% 24.4% 4.10 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guimaraes B1.3

Trofense0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GUIMARAES B · PPG 1.65

TROFENSE · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guimaraes B (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -18.1%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.0%

Trofense (A) 25.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guimaraes B face Trofense in Portugal - Liga 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guimaraes B a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Trofense 25%, so Guimaraes B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guimaraes B and 0.8 for Trofense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guimaraes B are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.25 for Trofense. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Guimaraes B vs Trofense Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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