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CF Os Belenenses vs União Santarém Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

CF Os Belenenses

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

União Santarém

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDL ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-15.8%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-110.3%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.1%3-15.4%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-13.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 59.9% 1.67 -2.6%

Draw 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Away win 16.6% 21.1% 4.75 -12.7%

Over 2.5 50.1% 46.5% 2.15 +7.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 27.9% 3.58 +0.4%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 53.5% 1.87 -8.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 22.5% 4.45 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Os Belenenses1.8

União Santarém0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CF OS BELENENSES · PPG 1.99

UNIÃO SANTARÉM · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CF Os Belenenses (H) 58.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -2.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

União Santarém (A) 16.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Os Belenenses face União Santarém in Portugal - Liga 3 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Os Belenenses a 58% chance, the draw 25% and União Santarém 17%, so CF Os Belenenses are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for CF Os Belenenses and 0.7 for União Santarém (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Os Belenenses are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.01 for União Santarém. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 5-0.

CF Os Belenenses vs União Santarém Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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