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Moreirense U19 vs Rio Ave U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Moreirense U19

PPG 0.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

UPCOMING

Rio Ave U19

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.8%0-25.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.0%1-111.5%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.5%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 35.7% 2.80 +6.4%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 37.7% 47.6% 2.10 -20.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 34.2% 2.92 +6.3%

BTTS 59.9% 61.7% 1.62 -3.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.3% 2.48 -1.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 49.0% 2.04 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.9%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreirense U191.5

Rio Ave U191.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MOREIRENSE U19 · PPG 0.77

RIO AVE U19 · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Moreirense U19 (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +6.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Rio Ave U19 (A) 37.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreirense U19 face Rio Ave U19 in Portugal - Júniores U19 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreirense U19 a 38% chance, the draw 24% and Rio Ave U19 38%, so Moreirense U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Moreirense U19 and 1.4 for Rio Ave U19 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreirense U19 are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 1.18 for Rio Ave U19. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Moreirense U19 vs Rio Ave U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Match Preview & Prediction

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