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Mafra U19 vs Alverca U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Mafra U19

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Alverca U19

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.5%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.2%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 40.8% 2.45 +6.8%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

Away win 29.5% 40.8% 2.45 -16.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 40.0% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mafra U191.4

Alverca U191.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAFRA U19 · PPG 1.36

ALVERCA U19 · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mafra U19 (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +6.8%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.9%

Alverca U19 (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mafra U19 face Alverca U19 in Portugal - Júniores U19 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mafra U19 a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Alverca U19 30%, so Mafra U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mafra U19 and 1.3 for Alverca U19 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mafra U19 are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.36 for Alverca U19. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Mafra U19 vs Alverca U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Match Preview & Prediction

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