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Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Porto U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Vitoria Guimaraes U19

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WWD ··

UPCOMING

Porto U19

PPG 2.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.3%0-26.7%0-34.2%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.4%1-110.1%1-29.3%1-35.8%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.0%2-26.5%2-34.0%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.7%3-13.2%3-23.0%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 20.0% 5.00 +29.1%

Draw 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Away win 47.0% 66.7% 1.50 -29.5%

Over 2.5 62.1% 63.7% 1.57 -2.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.6% 2.35 -5.5%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 39.6% 28.6% 3.50 +38.6%

Away O1.5 58.3% 67.6% 1.48 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.5%

A 47% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria Guimaraes U191.4

Porto U191.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA GUIMARAES U19 · PPG 1.51

PORTO U19 · PPG 2.26

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 (H) 29.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +29.1%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

Porto U19 (A) 47.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 face Porto U19 in Portugal - Júniores U19 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria Guimaraes U19 a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Porto U19 47%, so Porto U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vitoria Guimaraes U19 and 1.9 for Porto U19 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria Guimaraes U19 are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 2.26 for Porto U19. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +61.9%.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Porto U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Match Preview & Prediction

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