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Moreirense U19 vs Famalicão U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Moreirense U19

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Famalicão U19

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.5%0-25.5%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.1%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.7%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 40.0% 2.50 -4.0%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 34.9% 42.6% 2.35 -18.0%

Over 2.5 50.7% 55.6% 1.80 -8.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 35.3% 2.83 -12.6%

BTTS 54.3% 62.1% 1.61 -12.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.1% 2.27 -9.0%

Away O1.5 37.6% 45.5% 2.20 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 6.6%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreirense U191.4

Famalicão U191.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MOREIRENSE U19 · PPG 0.90

FAMALICÃO U19 · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Moreirense U19 (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -4.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Famalicão U19 (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreirense U19 face Famalicão U19 in Portugal - Júniores U19 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreirense U19 a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Famalicão U19 35%, so Moreirense U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Moreirense U19 and 1.3 for Famalicão U19 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreirense U19 are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.19 for Famalicão U19. This match finished 2-3.

Moreirense U19 vs Famalicão U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Match Preview & Prediction

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