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Porto U19 vs Moreirense U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Porto U19

PPG 2.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Moreirense U19

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 2.39 vs 1.45 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.2%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-17.7%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.4%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-17.8%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-18.5%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 84.7% 1.18 -28.5%

Draw 23.0% 16.7% 6.00 +22.8%

Away win 16.4% 9.1% 11.00 +48.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 23.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 61% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 3–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Porto U192.5

Moreirense U190.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTO U19 · PPG 2.39

MOREIRENSE U19 · PPG 1.45

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 2.39 vs 1.45 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Porto U19 (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -28.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +22.8%

Moreirense U19 (A) 16.4%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +48.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Porto U19 face Moreirense U19 in Portugal - Júniores U19 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Porto U19 a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Moreirense U19 16%, so Porto U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Porto U19 and 0.9 for Moreirense U19 (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Porto U19 are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 1.45 for Moreirense U19. This match finished 3-1.

Porto U19 vs Moreirense U19 Prediction— Portugal - Júniores U19

Match Preview & Prediction

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