Today / Tunisia - Ligue 1 / ES Sahel vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

ES Sahel vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

ES Sahel

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

UPCOMING

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-18.6%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-112.3%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.2%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 69.0% 1.45 -28.5%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.6%

Away win 24.3% 14.3% 7.00 +42.1%

Over 2.5 46.1% 42.6% 2.35 +8.3%

Over 3.5 26.0% 25.6% 3.90 +0.8%

BTTS 49.9% 44.1% 2.27 +13.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.6% 1.83 -27.0%

Away O1.5 22.6% 17.1% 5.85 +19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 27%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ES Sahel1.4

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ES SAHEL · PPG 1.91

JEUNESSE SPORTIVE OMRANE · PPG 0.76

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ES Sahel (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -28.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.6%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (A) 24.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +42.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

ES Sahel face Jeunesse Sportive Omrane in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ES Sahel a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 24%, so ES Sahel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for ES Sahel and 0.8 for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ES Sahel are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.76 for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +19.3%.

ES Sahel vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Tunisia - Ligue 1 Predictions