Today / Tunisia - Ligue 1 / ES Tunis vs AS Marsa

ES Tunis vs AS Marsa Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

ES Tunis

PPG 2.24 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

AS Marsa

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Home 74% chance

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-18.0%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.9%1-111.8%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.6%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-14.2%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 83.3% 1.20 -38.9%

Draw 26.7% 20.0% 5.00 +20.1%

Away win 22.4% 8.3% 12.00 +101.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 33.7% 2.97 -22.8%

BTTS 48.0% 32.5% 3.08 +47.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 71.9% 1.39 -44.5%

Away O1.5 18.8% 8.9% 11.25 +66.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 27%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ES Tunis1.5

AS Marsa0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ES TUNIS · PPG 2.24

AS MARSA · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

74%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ES Tunis (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -38.9%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.1%

AS Marsa (A) 22.4%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +101.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

ES Tunis face AS Marsa in Tunisia - Ligue 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ES Tunis a 51% chance, the draw 27% and AS Marsa 22%, so ES Tunis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for ES Tunis and 0.7 for AS Marsa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ES Tunis are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 0.82 for AS Marsa. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +66.9%.

ES Tunis vs AS Marsa Prediction— Tunisia - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Tunisia - Ligue 1 Predictions