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Chelsea U21 vs West Ham United U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 12:00

Chelsea U21

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

West Ham United U21

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.3%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.5%1-18.7%1-26.9%1-33.6%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.7%3-15.9%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.8%4+-23.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 54.1% 1.85 -17.5%

Draw 26.1% 26.3% 3.80 -0.5%

Away win 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Over 2.5 60.3% 72.5% 1.38 -16.8%

Over 3.5 40.3% 51.3% 1.95 -21.4%

BTTS 60.2% 74.1% 1.35 -18.7%

Home O1.5 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.2%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelsea U212.0

West Ham United U211.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELSEA U21 · PPG 1.88

WEST HAM UNITED U21 · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chelsea U21 (H) 44.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -17.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.5%

West Ham United U21 (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelsea U21 face West Ham United U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelsea U21 a 45% chance, the draw 26% and West Ham United U21 29%, so Chelsea U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Chelsea U21 and 1.6 for West Ham United U21 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelsea U21 are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.23 for West Ham United U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 5-4.

Chelsea U21 vs West Ham United U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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