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Bjarg vs Arendal Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

Bjarg

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

UPCOMING

Arendal

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.9%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.8%1-110.5%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.6%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 57.8% 1.73 -23.9%

Draw 23.5% 25.6% 3.90 -5.0%

Away win 32.5% 27.8% 3.60 +17.0%

Over 2.5 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Over 3.5 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

BTTS 61.5% 65.4% 1.53 -5.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -41.1%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bjarg1.8

Arendal1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BJARG · PPG 1.44

ARENDAL · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bjarg (H) 44.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -23.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.0%

Arendal (A) 32.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bjarg face Arendal in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bjarg a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Arendal 33%, so Bjarg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bjarg and 1.3 for Arendal (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bjarg are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Arendal. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.0%.

Bjarg vs Arendal Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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