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Notodden vs Lysekloster Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Notodden

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

UPCOMING

Lysekloster

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home 69% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.4%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.7%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 76.3% 1.31 -31.5%

Draw 25.1% 20.4% 4.90 +13.8%

Away win 22.6% 14.6% 6.85 +32.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 75.8% 1.32 -33.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 52.9% 1.89 -27.5%

BTTS 49.9% 65.4% 1.53 -23.6%

Home O1.5 47.5% 78.7% 1.27 -39.7%

Away O1.5 23.5% 31.1% 3.22 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -41.1%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Notodden1.6

Lysekloster0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTODDEN · PPG 1.00

LYSEKLOSTER · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Notodden (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -31.5%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +13.8%

Lysekloster (A) 22.6%

ODDS 6.85 · IMPLIED 14.6% EV +32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Notodden face Lysekloster in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Notodden a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Lysekloster 23%, so Notodden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Notodden and 0.8 for Lysekloster (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Notodden are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Lysekloster. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.3%.

Notodden vs Lysekloster Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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