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Varnsdorf vs Velké Hamry Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Group B · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Varnsdorf

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

UPCOMING

Velké Hamry

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 73% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.9%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.7%1-18.7%1-24.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.3%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-17.0%4+-23.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 76.9% 1.30 -23.6%

Draw 19.9% 21.1% 4.75 -3.3%

Away win 21.3% 13.3% 7.50 +35.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.5% 46.5% 2.15 -12.9%

BTTS 59.0% 58.1% 1.72 +1.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 75.2% 1.33 -11.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 24.7% 4.05 +34.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 59% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varnsdorf2.2

Velké Hamry1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VARNSDORF · PPG 1.65

VELKÉ HAMRY · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

73%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Varnsdorf (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -23.6%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -3.3%

Velké Hamry (A) 21.3%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +35.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varnsdorf face Velké Hamry in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varnsdorf a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Velké Hamry 21%, so Varnsdorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Varnsdorf and 1.1 for Velké Hamry (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varnsdorf are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 0.88 for Velké Hamry. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +34.5%.

Varnsdorf vs Velké Hamry Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Match Preview & Prediction

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