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Teplice II vs Pardubice II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Group B · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Teplice II

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

UPCOMING

Pardubice II

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.3%0-23.5%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.4%1-18.7%1-27.0%1-33.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.7%3-15.9%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.7%4+-23.7%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 50.0% 2.00 -5.0%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Away win 30.5% 34.5% 2.90 -11.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 65.4% 1.53 +4.7%

Over 3.5 45.0% 43.3% 2.31 +4.0%

BTTS 63.5% 69.0% 1.45 -7.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 55.9% 1.79 -0.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 46.7% 2.14 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teplice II2.0

Pardubice II1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TEPLICE II · PPG 1.96

PARDUBICE II · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Teplice II (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -5.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

Pardubice II (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teplice II face Pardubice II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teplice II a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Pardubice II 31%, so Teplice II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Teplice II and 1.6 for Pardubice II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teplice II are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 0.88 for Pardubice II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +11.5%.

Teplice II vs Pardubice II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B Predictions