Today / Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B / Jablonec II vs Velké Hamry

Jablonec II vs Velké Hamry Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Group B · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:15

Jablonec II

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWD ·

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Velké Hamry

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.2%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.4%1-19.0%1-25.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.7%3-16.9%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.1%4+-23.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 54.1% 1.85 -0.7%

Draw 22.7% 27.8% 3.60 -11.0%

Away win 23.6% 29.9% 3.35 -12.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.9% 40.7% 2.46 -9.2%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 61.0% 58.8% 1.70 +3.7%

Away O1.5 37.3% 39.8% 2.51 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–2 5.5%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jablonec II2.1

Velké Hamry1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JABLONEC II · PPG 1.61

VELKÉ HAMRY · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jablonec II (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.0%

Velké Hamry (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jablonec II face Velké Hamry in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jablonec II a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Velké Hamry 24%, so Jablonec II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Jablonec II and 1.2 for Velké Hamry (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jablonec II are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.05 for Velké Hamry. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 6-0.

Jablonec II vs Velké Hamry Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B Predictions