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Mladá Boleslav II vs Sokol Zápy Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Group B · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:15

Mladá Boleslav II

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLW ·

UPCOMING

Sokol Zápy

PPG 2.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWD ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.8%0-24.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.6%1-110.1%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.3%3-15.1%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.3%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 38.5% 2.60 +11.5%

Draw 22.8% 32.3% 3.10 -17.6%

Away win 34.3% 42.0% 2.38 -18.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 60.6% 1.65 +5.1%

Over 3.5 40.5% 40.7% 2.46 -0.4%

BTTS 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 47.4% 2.11 +5.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.3% 1.99 -4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 5.7%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladá Boleslav II1.7

Sokol Zápy1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADÁ BOLESLAV II · PPG 1.32

SOKOL ZÁPY · PPG 2.02

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mladá Boleslav II (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +11.5%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.6%

Sokol Zápy (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladá Boleslav II face Sokol Zápy in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladá Boleslav II a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Sokol Zápy 34%, so Mladá Boleslav II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mladá Boleslav II and 1.5 for Sokol Zápy (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladá Boleslav II are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 2.02 for Sokol Zápy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%.

Mladá Boleslav II vs Sokol Zápy Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Match Preview & Prediction

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